The Chiefs have a dilemma.
They could try to knock the Broncos out of the playoffs next weekend with a win in Denver, or they could do just that what they usually do when the final game of the regular season means nothing for their playoff fortunes – rest the starting quarterback and other key starters.
Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes made his debut seven years ago. The Week 17 Chiefs-Broncos game meant nothing, so Alex Smith sat down and Mahomes played.
Generally speaking, no team would want to see a division rival roll into town for a one-game winner-take-all playoff showdown. Division rivals know their opponents well. They don’t get as intimidated as other teams. And they want nothing more than to derail a special season.
The Broncos just need to win on Sunday to get in. A loss to the Chiefs likely means Denver’s streak of no playoff appearances since winning Super Bowl 50 will be extended to nine.
There’s another reason for the Chiefs to consider playing Mahomes and other key starters, even if only for a quarter. With the bye secured and the extra rest of playing on Wednesday, there are 24 days between games for Mahomes, Travis Kelce, etc.
What if the Broncos win on Sunday, upset the Bills in the wild-card round (which isn’t a crazy proposition) and then roll to Arrowhead in the divisional round after playing three high-stakes games since the last time Mahomes played?
Once before, the Chiefs rested Mahomes in the final game of the regular season while holding a first-round bye. And when Kansas City hosted Cleveland in the divisional round, the game was closer than expected. Would Mahomes and others have had it without three weeks off between games?
There is one last point. Knocking out the Broncos could open the door for the Bengals. And the Bengals have gone toe-to-toe with the Chiefs in the postseason, beating them in the 2021 AFC Championship and nearly beating them in the 2022 AFC Championship.
But there’s no guarantee the Bengals will come in with a Broncos loss. They still need the Colts or Dolphins to lose at least once, and the Colts close with the Giants and Jaguars. So it’s possible that both the Broncos and Bengals could be eliminated.
That would be good for the Chiefs. And for everyone else in the 2024 playoff field.