Election Day is now often considered election week in the United States, as each state follows its own rules and practices for counting ballots — not to mention legal challenges — that can delay the outcome. But the truth is, no one knows how long it will take before the winner is announced this time.
While it is not unusual for results in a presidential race to take some time, there will be some changes in 2024 that could delay answers for voters.
Changes to voter ID laws and North Carolina’s early voting process could delay the vote count.
Meanwhile, laws in key swing states like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania prevent clerks from processing ballots before Election Day. In 2020, these states were decided by approximately 20,000 and 80,000 votes, respectively.
“In other states they can access and verify them. They can flatten them, so all they have to do is run them through the scanners. In Pennsylvania they can’t even touch them,” Giangreco said. “So we’re probably looking at Friday or Saturday before we know Pennsylvania.”
When will we know the results of the presidential election? What history says
According to Dr. However, Kevin Boyle, chairman of Northwestern University’s history department, delays are not unheard of in a presidential race.
“There are a lot of stories about presidential candidates just going to bed and not knowing if they won the presidency or not,” Boyle said.
In 2020, it took four days for President Joe Biden to be officially declared the winner. In 2000, results depended on just 537 votes in Florida, with networks calling the state for Al Gore and then George Bush before ruling the race “too close to call.”
There were many elections in the 19th and 20th centuries that did not take place on election night.
“Even in 1960, John Kennedy wasn’t announced as the winner of the presidency until the next day,” Boyle said. “Richard Nixon wasn’t announced until the next day as the winner of the 1968 presidency. And what happened then was a kind of explosion of exit polls, which made it easier to pick a winner faster, to name a winner faster. And many elections were not very close until 2000.”
In addition to delays in vote counting, experts also say legal challenges are likely before a final announcement is made.
Sharon McMahon, a podcast host and former teacher known as “America’s Government Teacher,” said there are “a very, very large number of lawsuits that are already underway and will be filed.”
“There are already more than a hundred lawsuits pending related to the election, and there are definitely more on attorneys’ desks. They are just waiting for the correct details to be entered and waiting for it to be submitted,” McMahon said. “If we think there were more than 60 lawsuits in the post-2020 election, it will probably be double that in this election.”
So what does it take to see results faster?
Giangreco said there is one scenario in which results could come closer to Election Day.
“Only if (Donald) Trump wins Wisconsin or Michigan,” Giangreco said. “If he wins either state, it’s probably over. And if we know those states on Wednesday, that will likely be the case. I think the most likely path for Kamala Harris to the presidency is the blue wall states: Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania.”
It is unclear whether that will happen.
“Here’s what it comes down to: If the polls are correct and all things are equal, there is a huge advantage for Harris on the ground, especially in the blue wall states, and I think this is her ticket to win. If there’s a response bias that we saw in 2016 and 2020, where the polls are undercounting the number of Trump voters, then you might expect that Trump is actually up four or five points in all of these states, and that will be an electoral landslide. for Trump, and perhaps even a popular vote. So either the polls are right and Harris’ field operation is going to win, or the polls are wrong and it’s going to be a good night for Trump.”
Another potential scenario looms this fall: the “contingent election” of the president and vice president that would take place if no one could secure the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidential election.
That hasn’t happened in modern times, but there are a few conceivable (if unlikely) paths on the Electoral College map that could lead to Trump and Harris ending the race with a tie at 269 electoral votes.
In case of a draw, Congress would determine the next president.