By admin 
The green energy industry has been through this before, with Trump’s tariffs during his first administration. as well as by Presidents Obama and Bidenon solar panels from China. If the purpose of tariffs is to stimulate domestic production and punish exporting countries, those previous levies have failed Chinese companies simply moved production to non-tariff countries in Southeast Asia. Now the United States mainly imports its solar panels Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam.
A study by economists from Cornell, Yale, NYU and Duke found that the tariffs ultimately didn’t increase U.S. production much, but they did have a significant — and negative — effect on the installation sector, which accounts for nearly 30 percent of clean energy jobs in Massachusetts.
Tariffs on solar panels under Biden led to “a small increase in labor in manufacturing, but you had a huge decrease in labor in installation,” he said Robert Stavins, professor of energy and economic development at the Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
Trump has threatened to pull the plug on offshore wind energy and immediately limit support for renewable energy production. Last month, he also pledged to impose a 25 percent tariff on Mexican and Canadian imports and an additional 10 percent tax on Chinese goods. If implemented, imported goods could rise in every sector, including the equipment that enables the state’s transition from fossil fuels, from solar panels to batteries and transmission cables.
“For Massachusetts, it will be unequivocally bad,” Stavins said.
And here’s the kicker: Experts agree that slowing the expansion of renewable energy will also likely increase electricity rates across the board in Massachusetts, where they already are. to the highest of such costs in the nation.
By 2022, Biden visited the abandoned factory in Brayton Point, promising “to building a different futureone with clean energy and good-paying jobs” for New Englanders.
But under Trump, the cost of imported equipment could rise, which could be a “fairly significant blow” to the clean energy industry, said Kyle Murray, director of state program implementation at the climate nonprofit Acadia Center — and for the purpose of the state to Add 34,000 clean energy jobs to the workforce by 2030.
“If you jack up prices, energy is not spared,” Murray said. “There are many things the state can do in terms of incentives and tax breaks, but we will have to think creatively and work quickly to limit any potential damage.”
In 2022, nearly 44,000 people were employed in clean energy construction, installation and maintenance across the state, including more than 12,000 in renewable energy. These jobs range from solar panel installers, who number more than 1,800, to the nearly 3,500 electricians whose work focuses on renewable energy projects, such as setting up onshore transmission lines for offshore wind energy.
Jeffrey Plaisted, a union electrician and business agent for IBEW Local Union 223, at his office in Taunton. Plaisted is one of hundreds of workers who have benefited from the increase in clean energy jobs in Massachusetts.Jonathan Wiggs/Globe Staff
“If Trump does what he said he would do, it will hurt. It will crush hundreds, if not thousands, of jobs in the near future,” said Jeff Plaisted, an electrician and business agent for IBEW Local Union 223, who worked on the onshore component of Vineyard Wind 1.
Plaisted said the next project for the SouthCoast Wind union members is at Brayton Point – as final federal permits are approved.
“We count on that work,” he said. “Within six to eight months we could be at absolutely full employment, with 100 percent of our members working… or not. That’s basically where we are now.”
Prysmian, the cable manufacturerdeclined to comment on the economic impact of the promised Trump tariffs.
Still, some renewable energy advocates and industry professionals are optimistic about the consequences on local employment will be minimal.
Rates Are “A devil we know,” says Daniel Shugar, founder of the solar technology company Nextracker. Shugar said the country’s existing inventory of panels, both made in the United States and imported from countries like India, should provide some “cushion” for potential customers against rising prices.
Patrick Crowley, head of the Rhode Island Climate Jobs Coalition and Rhode Island AFL-CIO president, noted that the industry has already weathered high tariffs on Chinese solar panels under the Biden administration.
“Despite this, we have seen a huge increase in the deployment of solar panels at both industrial and residential levels in recent years,” he said, noting the 32 gigawatts of industrial-scale solar built in the United States by 2023more than double the previous year. “It may be a lot tougher in the coming years than it has been … but we are well positioned” to keep the momentum going with jobs and installations, he said.
On wind energy, Harvard professor Stephen Ansolabehere, who researches the clean energy transition, said that while Massachusetts’ ability to scale up offshore wind energy will likely slow over the next decade, he projects such as SouthCoast Wind expected – which is close to that completed or already permitted – may continue. Those jobs are crucial for replacing work in the fossil fuel industry as the state tries to achieve its climate goals.
“We are in an area of New England where no new power plants are being built — we are closing them,” Plaisted said. “Offshore wind, solar, battery storage, these are all local jobs that will keep our local economy going.”
President Biden traveled to the former Brayton Point power plant in July 2022 to deliver remarks about tackling the climate crisis and seizing the opportunity for a clean energy future to create jobs.David L. Ryan/Globe Staff
In the geothermal heating and cooling industry, industry professionals see themselves as fairly insulated from rates.
“The heart of geothermal energy is in Oklahoma, the major plants that produce the geothermal heat pumps are in” Indiana, Florida and South Dakota, said Zeyneb Magavi, CEO of HEET, a clean energy nonprofit in Massachusetts that focuses on geothermal. “At this point, I have not found anything that would prevent geothermal energy from being unusually resilient in a political environment.”
A 2022 Department of Public Utilities analysis projects that about a quarter of the state’s construction industry will use geothermal energy heating and cooling networks in 2050.
But even with production centers in red states U.S. factories remain dependent on imports of raw materials, which could increase in price due to across-the-board tariffs.
However, the geothermal industry has an ace up its sleeve to play with the Trump administration: In Massachusetts, the nascent industry is working with natural gas companies — which Trump has pledged to protect — to build the underground infrastructure that powers geothermal heat pumps. .
Geothermal heating and cooling could even be a potential local manufacturing job booster, Magavi noted, because “we make our own drills and our own geothermal heat pumps, and it’s a small enough industry that needs to grow (enough) that it building more local production would be great.”
Many working in the clean energy sector share a cautious sense of optimism.
With the clean energy transition well underway, no executive order will stop the free market, said Harry Godfrey, executive director of the clean energy trade association Advanced Energy United.
“But none of these technologies, none of these industries are Trump-proof,” he added. “Let’s be clear about that.”
Ivy Scott can be reached at [email protected]. Follow her @itsivyscott.