By admin 
Donald Trump is on his way way to the White House. The distribution of votes across the country is expected to remain close. At this hour, The New York Times predicts that the real estate mogul will win by a narrow margin of just one point Kamala Harris. However, the turnout of certain voter groups has proven to be decisive.
To analyze shifts in voting behavior, we used CNN’s exit pollsaimed at changes in the preferences of approximately twenty key voter groups.
Trump is making notable gains among women and young people
Kamala Harris won the female vote, but by a smaller margin than in 2020. Trump, who trailed Joe Biden by 15 points four years ago, would have shortened his lead by 5 points in this election.
Another traditionally Democratic-leaning group where Harris has lost momentum is the younger generation. In 2020, Biden secured their support with a 24-point lead. This year, however, Harris’ lead has been reduced to just 13 points.
Trump also received more support among voters aged 45 to 64. Harris, by contrast, has made gains only among older generations, possibly bolstered by the so-called Vietnam generation, a traditionally Democratic-oriented group that now falls within this age range.
Trump’s gains among young voters are particularly notable, with a gain of about nine points among both young men and women. This trend contrasts with patterns seen in other countries, such as the United Kingdom and Spain, where the growth of right-wing and far-right support among younger populations has been more concentrated among men.
Latinos turn to Trump
One of the biggest stories about the results is the significant increase in numbers support for Trump among Latino voters. Trump has all but erased the Democratic advantage in this group, narrowing the gap from 33 points to just 8.
Trump’s gains among Latino voters were especially pronounced among men. While Biden captured 59% of this group’s votes four years ago, Trump has now overtaken Harris, with a 10-point lead.
Harris managed to maintain her support among black voters despite earlier polls suggesting a significant Republican shift in this group.
Trump still dominates among voters without a college degree
A key constituency for Trump because of his size – 57% of the census – are voters without a college degree. The Republican has gone from a two-point lead to an eight-point lead in this group.
Trump again dominated among non-college-educated white voters. In 2020 he led this group by 35 points, and in 2024 he maintained a strong lead of 31 points. Although the poll shows that Harris narrowed this gap somewhat, this was not enough to secure the three crucial Rust Belt states, where non-college-educated white voters are the most present.
Trump receives support among the lowest income groups
Reflecting the trends in the previous chart, Trump has made significant progress among lower income groups. He has increased his support by 12 points among those making less than $50,000 a year, and by 17 points among those making between $50,000 and $100,000. In both groups, he effectively erased the Democrats’ lead and somewhat overtook them.
The opposite shift has occurred among those with the highest incomes above $100,000. In 2016, this group overwhelmingly supported Trump, giving him a twelve-point lead over Biden. This year, however, Harris has managed to reverse that advantage, increasing her support by 20 points
Republicans are widening their lead in rural areas and pushing out the suburbs
Trump won, albeit by a narrow margin, in suburban areas, where half of Americans live. Moreover, the Republican candidate has expanded his lead in rural areaswhere he now has a 27-point lead over Harris.
Trump makes decisive gains among independents
Voters who do not identify with any political party have shifted from a 13-point preference for Democrats to a narrower margin of just 5 points. This group is particularly important because of its size – one in three voters – and its tendency to change support between elections. Moreover, among independents who support Trump, it is likely that there has been a higher level of mobilization this time around.
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