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National Hurricane Center (NHC) meteorologists say it is “too early” to say whether Tropical Storm Rafael will hit the US this weekend as the weather system has yet to move through the Gulf of Mexico.
Tropical Storm Rafael formed Monday and is expected to develop into a hurricane later today. It will fly past Jamaica and then move like a hurricane past the Cayman Islands, through northwestern Cuba and then into the Gulf of Mexico, where it will target Louisiana. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the lower and middle Florida Keys Wednesday evening as the storm moves through. The biggest threats to the area Heavy rain, strong winds and coastal flooding will result.
“Steady to rapid intensification is expected over the next 24 to 36 hours, and Rafael is expected to become a hurricane as it approaches the Cayman Islands, with further strengthening before making landfall in Cuba,” the NHC update said.
National Hurricane Center
If the storm makes landfall in Louisiana, it will be a historic event, considering that a tropical storm or hurricane never made landfall in the state during the month of November. However, several environmental factors affect the storm’s potential, including cooling ocean waters, strong wind shear, and Rafael’s slow progress.
Strong wind shear
NHC spokesperson Erica Grow Cei says Newsweek that La Nina conditions are “beginning to manifest in some of our mid-latitude weather patterns,” meaning wind shear is increasing, which is also happening in November.
“If the storm runs into that wind shear, it makes it harder to stay stable and really cuts off the potential for intensification,” Grow Cei said.
The wind shear could help resolve the storm before it makes landfall in the US
Tropical Storm Rafael is weakening
The NHC originally expected the storm to hit Louisiana this weekend as a tropical storm, but newer forecasts show the storm slowing, Grow Cei said. The storm’s outer bands could reach U.S. land this weekend, and Rafael may no longer be a tropical storm by early next week, but it’s too early to tell, she said.
Cooling ocean waters
Although Caribbean waters remain warm, ocean surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are beginning to cool, which also poses a hurdle for the storm.
“As the storm moves north, it will move into cooler waters, one of the things that will reduce its intensity,” Grow Cei said.
While the storms that passed through the Gulf earlier this year quickly intensified, the water is now too cold for that.
Hurricane Center monitors a second system
Tropical Storm Rafael is the 17th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season. It follows Tropical Storm Patty, which has now resolved off the west coast of Portugal.
Meteorologists are also monitoring another system in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean, which has a 20 percent chance of forming in the next seven days. An official path for that potential storm has yet to be released.
“An area of low pressure could develop near the northern Leeward Islands within a few days. Thereafter, slow development of this system is possible during the latter part of the week as it moves generally westward over the southwest Atlantic Ocean,” recent NHC update said about the new system.