By admin LSU started the season with a disappointing 27-20 loss to USC, but has since rebounded to post six straight wins and currently has a 30% chance of qualifying for the 12-team CFP playoffs. Now 3-0 in SEC play after wins over South Carolina, Arkansas and then-undefeated Ole Miss, LSU has a pair of season-defining matchups ahead of @TexasA&M this week and Alabama in Week 11 after the bye. The Tigers are 3-4 ATS and somewhat surprisingly 2-5 Under despite the team averaging 32 points per game on offense. LSU ranks third in the nation in offense and, despite some issues, still boasts the 38th SP+ defense. They currently rank 105th in acceptable pass rate with a graduation rate of 65%, so strengthening the high school level is still a work in progress
Like LSU, Texas A&M lost its season opener to Notre Dame before going on a six-game losing streak that resurrected their CFP playoff hopes. Since then, Year 1 HC Mike Elko orchestrated double-digit victories over @Florida, @Mississipi State and a 41-10 evisceration of previously undefeated Missouri State. Defensively, the Aggies are an elite unit, ranking 13th in the country with an elite secondary that allows a 54% completion rate (10th) while ranking 15th in both explosive passes allowed and fast success rate. Their running game was the backbone of an A&M offense that ranked 19th in yards after contact and third in interception rate.
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Game details and how to watch 2024 LSU @ Texas A&M live
· Date: Saturday, October 26, 2024
· Time: 7:30 PM EST
· Location: Kyle Field
· City: College Station, Texas
· TV/Streaming: ABC/ESPN+
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LSU @ Texas A&M Week 9 Odds
Latest rates for Thursday:
- Money Line: LSU (+115), Texas A&M (-135)
- Proliferation: Texas A&M -2.5
- Over/Under: 53.5 points
*odds courtesy of BetMGM
This game started with Texas A&M key number -3, but has since dropped to -2.5 overall. Texas A&M improved from an early drop of -162 to -135, while LSU’s opening +136 was broken to +115. The game total is still around the initial bid of 54 points.
NBC Sports Bet’s best bet
NBC sports betting analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks it could be difficult to score points:
“Texas A&M has won 53.5 games against FBS programs just once all season, while LSU is 4-2 Under against current totals. I think Texas A&M can slow down and keep this game close. In this key matchup in the SEC conference, I am betting on the Under 53.5 points.”
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Quarterback duel for LSU @ Texas A&M
- Texas A&M: Former four-star recruit Conner Weigman has been the Aggies’ starter since his true freshman season in 2022. He powered through the first four games of 2023, earning a spotless passing grade of 91.9 PFF with an 8-2 ratio before suffering a season-ending injury. Weigman returned to play for the first two games of the season before being injured again against McNeese State, costing him the next three games, giving way to rookie QB Marcel Reed until he returned and defeated ninth-ranked Mizzou 41-10. Overall, Weigman wasn’t happy as he completed 62% of his passes with a 3-to-4 ratio and an average score of 61.5.
- LSU: Garrett Nussmeier was groomed from birth to be a starting Four because his father, Doug, was a longtime NFL backup QB and renowned quarterback coach. Nussmeier threw for at least 285 yards in each of his first six games before dropping to 233 against Arkansas last week. He currently ranks third in the nation with 284 passing attempts and 15th with a passing score in the 86th percentile. Nussmeier is one of just 34 passers with an ADOT of 10.0 or higher and ranks seventh in the FBS with 18 touchdown passes. Thanks to his good play, he is emerging as a potential first-round NFL draft candidate.
Trends and latest stats for LSU and Texas A&M
- LSU’s defense has allowed a modest 31% red zone completion rate thus far, which is the third-best RZ completion rate in the Power Four. South Carolina leads the P4 with a 28% RZ completion rate.
- LSU True Freshman running back Caden Durham is averaging 7.4 yards of offense per touch, which is the highest among all SEC ball carriers. Tennessee RB DeSean Bishop ranks second with 7.0 yards per touch.
- Texas A&M ranks last in the SEC with 10 of 216 (4.6%) defenses over 20 yards. Texas’ defense ranks No. 1 in the SEC, with 1 of 238 (0.4%) offenses turning into explosive runs.
- The Aggies allowed a 55% contest rate, which is the best mark among SEC defenses. However, they also allowed six touchdown passes in the red zone, the most of any SEC program to date.
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Expert picks and predictions for LSU @ Texas A&M
Our model calculates predictions for every moneyline, spread and over/under for every game on the NCAA football calendar based on data such as past performance, player matchups, injuries and weather.
Once the model is complete, we place its projection next to the latest bet lines so that the game determines the relative confidence level for each bet.
Here are the best bets our model predicts for Tigers @ Aggies:
· Money line: : NBC Sports is staying away from the Moneyline game
· Proliferation: : NBC Sports is leaning toward scoring points and taking over Texas A&M
· Total: : NBC Sports stays away from the game with a total of 53.5 points
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- Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)
- Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper)
- Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)
- Brad Thomas (@MrBradThomas)
- Eric Froton (@CFFroton)