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Last updated:Nov 12, 2024 9:15 PM IST
The fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman is considered the replacement level, meaning that below this level a population begins to shrink over time.
India’s population is still growing, but at a slower pace. (AP photo)
India, currently the most populous country in the world, has seen significant changes in its demographic landscape in recent decades. As of November 2024, the country’s population stands at 145.56 crore, a figure that has overtaken China and marks a historic shift in global population dynamics. However, the country is also experiencing a notable decline in fertility rates, a trend that has both positive and negative implications for the future.
Decline in the fertility rate: a global and national trend
The world population, which was about 250 crore in 1950, has now crossed 800 crore. While this exponential growth has sparked debate about whether a growing world population is a blessing or a burden, the decline in birth rates worldwide is becoming increasingly apparent. According to United Nations estimates, India’s fertility rate, which was 6.2 children per woman in 1950, has now fallen to below 2. If current trends continue, India’s fertility rate could fall to 1.3 by 2050, which is a dramatic shift in the demographic profile of the population. the country.
The fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman is considered the replacement level, meaning that below this level a population begins to shrink over time. However, India is not alone in this phenomenon. By 2050, the global fertility rate is expected to fall to 1.8, and by 2100 it could fall further to 1.6. This decline presents a mixed bag of challenges and opportunities for countries like India, where the demographic transition could have long-term implications for economic growth, social stability and labor markets.
The Changing Face of India’s People
India’s population is still growing, but at a slower pace. In 2021, around 2 crore children were born in the country, but projections suggest that this number will decline to just 1.3 crore by 2050. Meanwhile, the global total number of births has also fallen, from 14.2 crore in 2016 to almost 1.29 crore. in 2021. Despite these changes, low-income countries are expected to experience the highest fertility rates in the coming decades, which will contribute to significant challenges in managing infrastructure and resources.
In India, the shift from a high fertility rate to a low fertility rate is partly driven by social and economic factors. These include delayed marriages, increased access to education and family planning, and shifting priorities around career and economic stability. Women, especially in urban areas, are having fewer children, often due to later marriages and a growing emphasis on career and personal development. These trends are expected to continue, significantly changing the country’s demographic structure in the coming decades.
The benefits of a declining fertility rate
While many may view a declining fertility rate as a challenge, there are several benefits to this demographic shift, especially from the perspective of resource management and quality of life. A decline in fertility rates generally leads to more manageable population growth, reducing pressure on resources such as food, water and energy. With fewer children to support, governments may be able to invest more in healthcare, education and social services, potentially improving the living standards of the general population.
Research also shows that women can directly benefit from lower fertility rates. Research shows that women who have fewer children live longer on average. For example, women who have only one child live an average of six years longer than women with large families. In addition to longer life expectancy, lower fertility rates are often associated with better health outcomes for women, including better maternal health and lower infant mortality rates.
Furthermore, a smaller and more controlled population could lead to better access to resources per capita. With fewer people to care for, the economy could see more targeted investments in infrastructure and development projects, creating more sustainable growth in the long term.
The cons: Risks of a shrinking population
However, the decline in fertility rates is not without problems. The most pressing concern is the potential for an aging population. As the fertility rate falls, the proportion of young people in society decreases, while the number of elderly people increases. This demographic shift could lead to a shortage of working-age people, creating labor market imbalances and putting pressure on social security systems. Countries with declining birth rates, including India, may face difficulty sustaining economic growth if there is not enough young labor to support older generations.
In India, the population of children aged 0 to 14 has already started to decline, from 36.4 crore in 2001 to 34 crore in 2024. Meanwhile, the number of people aged 60 and above has more than doubled, from 6.1 crore in 1991 to 34 crore in 2024. an estimated 15 crore in 2024. This aging population could pose significant challenges to healthcare systems, the pensions and social security programs, all of which will require greater resources as the number of older citizens grows.
Moreover, a smaller population could also lead to regional and social imbalances, especially in rural areas where birth rates remain relatively higher than in urban centers. In the future, this could exacerbate problems such as urban migration, unemployment and social inequality.
Global trends: fertility decline and its implications
The decline in fertility rates is not exclusive to India; it is part of a broader global trend. As fertility rates decline in both developed and developing countries, the challenges of a shrinking workforce and an aging population are increasing. However, the situation is more critical in low-income countries, where high fertility rates still pose significant challenges to infrastructure and resource management.
According to a 2021 study from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD), the share of live births in low-income countries is expected to double from 18 percent in 2021 to 35 percent in 2100. If these countries do not address the reproductive health problems that contribute to high fertility rates , they may face increased pressure on resources, health care and education systems.
India’s declining fertility rate presents both opportunities and challenges. While a smaller population could lead to better distribution of resources and a better quality of life, the long-term effects of an aging population and a shrinking workforce cannot be ignored. Policymakers will need to address these demographic shifts with targeted strategies, such as improving the labor force participation of older people, investing in healthcare for an aging population and promoting inclusive economic growth.
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