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If Donald Trump wins the elections, it is possible Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts could be pressured to resign. But maybe he doesn’t feel like leaving.
Roberts has been a member of the Court for nearly two decades and has played a crucial role in shaping its trajectory. One of the court’s six conservative justices, Roberts, 69, has sided Republicans in a number of high-profile cases, including that of the overthrow Roe v. Wade and Trump’s presidential immunity case.
Despite his status as a conservative ally, Roberts’ age puts him in a position to potentially retire after the 2028 election, and Republicans may not want to budge on that. Democrats a chance to appoint a liberal judge in his place.
“Chief Justice Roberts likes to think of himself as an industrialist, above politics. But Roberts is still very conservative and often looks out for what is good for society. Republican Party” Paul Collins, professor of legal studies and political science at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, told me Newsweek.
Collins expects that if Trump wins, his administration will pressure Roberts to retire. Given their history, it’s possible that a Trump pressure campaign could become a public battle.
During his 2016 campaign, Trump called Roberts an “absolute disaster.” In 2018, Trump criticized federal Judge Jon Tigar, who was appointed by the former president Barack Obama and ruled against Trump in a case to restrict asylum seekers at the border. Roberts issued a rare statement defending the judge, saying the court system is not filled with Obama, Trump, Bush or Clinton judges.
“What we have is an extraordinary group of dedicated judges who do their utmost to uphold justice as those who appear before them. That independent judiciary is something we should all be grateful for,” Roberts said.
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Trump fired back Tweetwho publicly disagrees with Roberts and claims that a federal appeals court, that of the 9th Circuit, is not an “independent judiciary.” He advised Roberts to “study the numbers” on the 9th Circuit Court’s rulings in cases.
Rather than being pressured to retire because of his age, the pressure on Roberts would likely stem from dissatisfaction with his quasi-moderate character and his voting record, Daria Roithmayr, a law professor at the University of Colorado, Boulder, told me. Newsweek.
From 2018 to 2020, when the Supreme Court had a 5-4 split, Roberts became the tie-breaking vote. In 2020, he often sided with the liberal justice system Elena Kagan then Justice Clarence Thomasand he was the decisive vote that preserved the Obama-era Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program, which protects eligible immigrants who came to the United States as children from deportation.
According to an analysis by the website FiveThirtyEight, Roberts has moved from a staunch conservative to a more moderate position over time. This has drawn some criticism from Republicans, although his pro-conservative views during the most recent term appear to have tempered some of that anger.
Roberts is relatively young by Supreme Court standards and younger than both Thomas and the Supreme Court justice Samuel Alitowhich are 76 and 74 respectively. According to Ballotpedia, the average age at which a Supreme Court justice leaves the court, due to death or retirement, is 78.6 years.
If Trump wins, Collins said, there is a good chance that both Alito and Thomas will decide to retire. Both “fully understand” the consequences of being replaced by a Democratic president and have had to weather a series of ethics complaints in recent years. Retiring while Trump is in power gives them the opportunity to leave on a good note.
Roithmayr sees Roberts as the least likely response to pressure to retire, given his “position on the apolitical nature of the Court.” If pressure is applied, Roberts may speak out and emphasize the importance of the Court’s impartiality.
While a Trump administration gives Republicans the chance to appoint a conservative judge, any nominee would have to get confirmation from the administration Senate. Republicans taking control of the Senate on Tuesday could increase pressure on judges to retire while giving the Republican Party a better chance of getting a nominee through the process.
Ethically, the idea of pressuring a sitting chief justice to retire could raise serious questions. Judicial independence is a fundamental principle in American democracy, intended to protect judges from external political pressure.
But if Trump wins and Alito, Thomas and Roberts retire, they will likely be replaced by judges who are significantly younger. And with judges Amy Coney Barrett, Brett Kavanaugh And Neil Gorsuch all under 60, that 6-3 conservative majority could remain intact for a generation.